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--- dom6:cursed-luck [2024/06/10 16:09]
fenrir average math, implications, and something I forgot
+++ dom6:cursed-luck [2024/06/10 16:54] (current)
fenrir [Cursed Luck]
@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 ====== Cursed Luck ======
-{{:abilities:cursed_luck.png?nolink }} **Cursed Luck** adds a **negative** [[DRN|drn]] to the bearer's [[Defence Skill|Defence]] and [[Protection]] rolls. Why is it all lowercase? Because, fortunately for the bearer, only one six-sided die is used as the base for this effect; regular DRNs use two.
+{{:abilities:cursed_luck.png?nolink }} **Cursed Luck** has a 50% chance to add a **negative** [[DRN|drn]] to the bearer's [[Defence Skill|Defence]] and [[Protection]] rolls. Why is it all lowercase? Because, fortunately for the bearer, only one six-sided die is used as the base for this effect; regular DRNs use two.
+Cursed Luck can, in fact, bring a fellow below the traditional minimum result for rolling a DRN (or even a regular 2d6). It cannot make the result negative, however; the minimum is **zero**.
+Even with only a 2-point change in the floor, Cursed Luck massively increases the likelihood of being [[protection#armor-defeating-hits|critically hit]], which requires a 2 or lower for the DRN result. Out of 1296 Cursed Luck DRNs, around 490 will be 2 or lower, around 625 will be 3 or lower, and around 758 will be 4 or lower. For 1296 regular DRNs, 36 will be 2's, 108 will be 3 or lower, and 216 will be 4 or lower. Thus:
+  * Against most units with Cursed Luck, around **20.29% of all hits** (~13/64) will be armor-defeating.
+  * Against units with Cursed Luck and 50-99 [[Fatigue]], around **28.29% of all hits** (~9/32) will be armor-defeating.
+  * Against helpless/[[Entrapment|entrapped]] units with Cursed Luck, around **37.58% of all hits** (~3/8) will be armor-defeating.
-Cursed Luck can, in fact, bring a fellow below the traditional minimum result for rolling a DRN (or even a regular 2d6). It thus increases the chance of being [[Protection#armor-defeating-hits|critically hit]] more than you might think, since it adds two potential values (zero and 1) for getting critically hit. It cannot make the result negative, however; the minimum is **zero**. Out of 1296 rolls:
-  * Around 490 will be **2 or lower**, so around **37.81% of hits** that land will always be armor-defeating.
-  * Around 625 will be **3 or lower**, so around **48.23% of hits** that land will be armor-defeating at 50-99 [[Fatigue]].
-  * Around 758 will be **4 or lower**, so around **58.49% of hits** that land will be armor-defeating while helpless.
 The average result of a DRN is an 8. The average result of a Cursed Luck DRN is around 4.25, so Cursed Luck effectively:
-  * Reduces Defense Skill for melee attacks, and possibly the Shield Parry in [[Precision#missile-combat|missile combat]], by around 3.75
+  * Reduces Defense Skill for melee attacks, and possibly the Shield Parry in [[Precision#missile-combat|missile combat]], by an average of 1.875
-  * Increases [[Protection#damage-types|Armor-Negating]] Damage on them by around 3.75
+  * Increases [[Protection#damage-types|Armor-Negating]] Damage on them by an average of 1.875
     * Due to critical hits, this increase is **higher** for hits that respect Protection, though never enough to out-scale Protection.
-    * For a person with 10 max [[Hit Points|HP]], this also means each AN hit is around 37.5% more likely to cause an [[Afflictions|Affliction]]!
+    * For a person with 10 max [[Hit Points|HP]], this also means each AN hit is around 18.75% more likely to cause an [[Afflictions|Affliction]]!
 Does the effect apply to anything else? Perhaps. The public information on this is two games out-of-date.

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