The function that generates scout numbers does the following:

1. It accepts an inaccuracy percent. I'm still investigating what alters this
2. Counts units in the province, including something which looks suspiciously like the glamour and invisible interaction with spirit sight on the map
3. Adds false army and obfuscate (they are technically the same ability, only difference is their positive/negative magnitude)
4. It then fudges the total number of units
   1. Generates a random number 0-199, subtracts 100 from it (so it is now -100 to +99)
   2. Adds (the above number * inaccuracy percent * number of units)/10000, rounded down, to the unit count - effectively this is adding (-100 to 99% of the inaccuracy percent and rounding the result down)
   3. If the unit count is now less than 10 it is set to 10*?floor((units + 5)/10)
   4. If fata morgana is in play, there is a 50% chance to hide ALL the units in a province. Otherwise, multiply the number of units by a random number between 0 and 499, divide by 100, then round down.

Then the next question is what the inaccuracy percent for various types of scouting is.

1. With eyes of god, it is 0%
2. With arco scry dominion it is 40%
3. With some other conditions (default)? it is 50%
4. With scrying spells it is 0%
5. With a spy in the province it is 10%
6. With a scout it is 30%

Other observations

• "The army appears to be commanded by <Leader>" only appears if the inaccuracy value is less than 30
• What does and doesn't radiate power is done by a complex function I don't really understand, it needs a radiate power score of >100 to get the text. Magic paths count for 10